The 2023 Democratic presidential primaries are underway to determine who will be the Democratic nominee for president in the 2024 presidential election. After losing the 2020 election, Democrats are hoping to regain the White House and build on their Congressional majorities. The large and diverse field of Democratic candidates reflects the broad coalition that makes up the party’s base.
Background
President Donald Trump’s tumultuous and controversial first term has left Democrats determined to prevent his re-election. Trump’s historically low approval ratings and divisive rhetoric have energized Democrats, leading to record turnout in the 2018 midterm elections where they took control of the House of Representatives. Democrats also made gains in state legislatures and governorships across the country. This momentum has carried over into the 2020 Democratic primaries, where voters are considering who is best positioned to defeat Trump in the general election.
The Candidates
Joe Biden
As vice president under Barack Obama, Joe Biden has near universal name recognition among Democratic voters. Seen by many as the heir apparent for the nomination, Biden is considered a centrist Democrat with working class appeal. He is promising to build on Obama’s legacy and work across the aisle, while standing up to Trump’s worst excesses.
Bernie Sanders
Vermont senator Bernie Sanders is reprising his role as the leading progressive in the Democratic field. Sanders rose from relative obscurity to challenge Hillary Clinton in 2016, energizing young voters and the left wing of the party. He supports Medicare for All, tuition-free college, aggressive climate action and other progressive policies. His grassroots fundraising network and impassioned supporters make him a formidable contender.
Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Warren was encouraged to run in 2016 but declined, allowing Bernie Sanders to dominate the progressive lane. She will not make the same mistake again in 2020. The Massachusetts senator and former Harvard law professor has detailed policy plans on issues like student debt relief, corporate regulation and wealth inequality. She promises structural change through targeted reforms.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris has rapidly ascended from California Attorney General to the Senate, where the telegenic and quick-witted legislator has gained notoriety for her harsh questioning of Trump nominees. With a mixed record as a tough-on-crime prosecutor and a diverse background as the daughter of immigrants, Harris aims to provide a youthful contrast to Trump.
Cory Booker
Cory Booker first gained fame as the dynamic and optimistic mayor of Newark, NJ who helped turn the city around. As a senator, he has promoted criminal justice reform while courting Wall Street support. Along with his rhetorical skills, Booker aims to heal racial divisions and restore faith in American ideals.
Beto O’Rourke
After gaining viral fame for his unsuccessful Senate race against Ted Cruz in Texas, Beto O’Rourke is hoping to parlay his charisma and optimism into a national campaign. Light on policy details but inspirational on the stump, he promises to begin a new era of national unity and reform past partisan divisions. His ability to engage young voters provides a wildcard scenario for victory.
The Rest of the Field
Many other candidates round out the diverse Democratic slate, including governors like Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper and Steve Bullock, seasoned politicians like Amy Klobuchar, Kirsten Gillibrand and John Delaney, and left-wing activists like Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson. While most lack the name recognition to compete seriously for the nomination, they are influencing the policy debate and could emerge as consensus choices at a contested convention.
The Issues
Democratic voters consistently cite health care, climate change, economic inequality and political corruption as their top issues. Candidates have offered progressive proposals on these topics while trying to avoid going so far left as to alienate moderates and independents they will need in the general election. Their ultimate goal is crafting a platform capable of defeating Trump while energizing their base to turn out.
Health Care
With millions still uninsured or underinsured and concerns over Republican efforts to cut coverage, Democrats are debating between incrementally expanding Obamacare and enacting Medicare for All. The pragmatists led by Biden want to add a public option and expand subsidies. Meanwhile, Sanders and Warren advocate replacing private insurance with single payer Medicare for All. The primary may hinge on whether voters prefer radical change over a more cautious approach.
Climate Change
Democrats are aligned on returning America to the Paris Climate Accords and enacting a Green New Deal to achieve carbon neutrality and transition toward clean energy. They differ on the scale and timing of action. Inslee and O’Rourke have made climate their signature issue, calling for urgent mobilization. Biden, Klobuchar and others prefer a more gradual shift, citing concerns over economic disruption. This dispute mirrors the broader debate between sweeping change and pragmatic incrementalism.
Economic Inequality
Income inequality, wage stagnation, rising costs of living and opportunity gaps between urban and rural Americans have Democrats focused on economic issues. Warren and Sanders have made this their wheelhouse, proposing wealth taxes and free college to reduce inequality. Meanwhile, moderates like Biden and Klobuchar favor expanding tax credits and access to education. Democrats across the spectrum advocate expanding worker rights and benefits.
Political Reform
Democrats argue that reducing the influence of big money and expanding voting rights will make government more representative. Proposals range from overturning Citizens United and enacting public financing of elections to automatic voter registration, an election holiday and statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico. All Democrats pledge to end partisan gerrymandering and expand ethics rules. How far to go in reforming institutions like the Supreme Court and electoral college divides progressives and moderates.
The Early Campaign
The 2020 Democratic campaign began unusually early, with candidates announcing their bids two years before the election. This extra time has allowed lesser-known contenders to build name recognition and fundraising networks. It has also sparked debates and forums starting in early 2019 rather than 2020. The extra time could allow the eventual nominee to emerge stronger, or could expose intra-party divides that hurt Democrats in the general election. Either way, the early start reflects their zeal to defeat Trump.
Fundraising
Trump’s massive fundraising apparatus has spurred Democrats to tap large networks of online grassroots donors. Sanders and Warren have disavowed big fundraisers and Super PACs. Others like Harris and Booker take a hybrid approach courting major donors while also soliciting small online donations. Grassroots enthusiasm will determine who can rack up the resources to compete through a long campaign. Wealthy candidates like Steyer and Bloomberg also have the option to self-fund.
Polls
Early polls are highly variable this far out but generally show Biden with a healthy lead based on name recognition, followed by Sanders, Warren and Harris. But with so many unknowns, polls are most useful for gauging which candidates are generating enough interest and support to remain viable. The debates may shuffle the standings, allowing a new face to emerge from the pack. Polls also hint at each candidate’s strengths among demographic groups like youth, minorities and college educated suburbanites.
Debates
The June and July 2019 debates gave voters their first chance to see Democratic hopefuls directly engage each other. Biden came under fire for his moderate stances while dominating the moderate lane. Progressives like Sanders and Warren drew contrasts with moderates on policy issues. Meanwhile, Harris and Booker impressed with their oratory skills while lower tier candidates tried to break out with memorable moments. The next debates will continue to shape voter impressions in the buildup to actual voting.
The Road to the Nomination
The journey to the Democratic nomination includes many mileposts, including:
- Primaries and Caucuses – The voting begins with Iowa on February 3 and then moves to other states.
- Debates – Candidates will debate multiple times in late 2019 and early 2020.
- Fundraising – Continued fundraising success will make or break campaigns.
- Endorsements – Endorsements from party leaders and interest groups influence voter perceptions.
- Advertising – Ad buys can boost name recognition and drive the news cycle.
- Ground Game – Field organizations and grassroots support will be crucial.
- Wildcards – Surprises like candidate gaffes, scandals or world events could change the landscape.
The dynamic nature of the race makes it nearly impossible to predict. Biden begins as front-runner but faces questions about enthusiasm for his candidacy. Sanders and Warren compete to be progressive standard-bearer. Harris and Booker aim to push through as fresh faces. Wildcards like Beto, Yang and Buttigieg try to gain steam. The only sure thing is a hard-fought primary culminating in the Democratic National Convention in July 2020 where a nominee will be selected.
Conclusion
The 2023 Democratic presidential primaries feature the largest and most diverse field in history, reflecting the coalition that makes up the modern Democratic Party. Key factors to watch are who emerges strongest on signature issues like health care, climate and economic inequality, and whether fiery progressive proposals or centrist pragmatism appeals most to an electorate hungry for change. With a sprawling roster of qualified contenders, Democrats have a deep bench to take on President Trump. After the bruising primary plays out, the eventual nominee will carry momentum into the general election. With control of the presidency and direction of the nation at stake, this could prove one of the most pivotal and hard-fought nomination battles in decades.